The (Trade Deadline) Plan: How the Mariners Should Attack Their Most Important Deadline Ever

We are now less than one month away from MLB’s trade deadline and the fanbase is in full-fledged panic mode as a red-hot Astros streak has coincided with the worst baseball the Mariners have played in 2 months, as their once 10-game lead in the AL West currently sits at 3.5 games (as of June 30). But almost regardless of how the next few weeks shake out, the Mariners will be buyers at his year’s deadline.

Some reports have already indicated that Seattle is expected to be one of the most aggressive teams in the market, with hopes of shoring up their pathetic lineup while adding some quality pitching to get the ball from their rotation to Andres Munoz and (hopefully) Gregory Santos to close down ball games. The big names are well-reported at this time, though the availability of many of them is yet to be set in stone.

We know Luis Robert Jr. and Garrett Crochet will be available, but other big names like Bo Bichette and Vladamir Guerrero Jr. are still a bit speculative. While a lot can and will change over the next 3 weeks, it feels appropriate to start laying out different visions for a successful deadline.

However, we cannot determine what a successful deadline is without first establishing goals. What should the Mariners’ goal be in the next month? Let’s start with these:

• Improve a lineup that is scoring less than 4 runs a game

• Acquire current and proven performers to lengthen the lineup

• Shore up a bullpen that lacks a second true High Leverage option

Some of these goals are vague or open to interpretation. But that’s the point. Seattle could add one star and achieve the first two goals. Or, they could acquire 3-4 “part-timers” and achieve the same goals. That’s the point. There’s more than one way to skin the cat (gross).

It’s important to note that while I’ll be offering specific trades, the prices are just guesses. The idea is to acquire the player for a non-absurd amount. I’m not trying to guess what the exact trade package would be, just how aggressive I’d be in an attempt to acquire these players. Tweak these deals any way you want, but understand that to get something, you’ll need to give up something. Also, I’m not going to concern myself too much with the budget. I trust Dipoto and Hollander to handle that side of things. So, with that understanding, let’s get started.

Trade #1: Dominic Canzone, Trent Thornton, and Teddy McGraw to Arizona for Paul Sewald and Joc Pederson

It’s time for Paul Sewald to pitch… for the Seattle Mariners again. An absolute fan favorite, Sewald has remained rock solid since heading to Arizona last summer. Though he’s not an elite reliever, he certainly falls in the tier below Andres Munoz and gives Seattle a second legitimate option to pair with Munoz and (hopefully) Gregory Santos. Meanwhile, Joc Pederson is having a fantastic year in Arizona, hitting .283/.378/.495, with the exit velocities and metrics Seattle typically covets in their targets.

Both Sewald and Pederson are rentals, and some will immediately scoff at the price. After all, Canzone has 5 full years of club control remaining and has certainly flashed at times in the big leagues. However, there are two factors to consider. First, Canzone’s inconsistencies at the plate make him a difficult player to trust, and banking on him to find that consistency in a pennant race is a tall task. And second, Arizona is still in the mix in a crowded NL Wild Card race. If in a few weeks, Arizona falls out of it entirely, this type of deal could look very different.

But if we assume that the Diamondbacks remain in contention, at least enough to sell to their fan base, it would be difficult to sell this deal to its fanbase for a prospect-only return. By acquiring two MLB contributors with multiple years of control for two rentals, Arizona can conceivably sell their fans on the idea that they made a somewhat lateral move and added an intriguing prospect to their ranks.

For Seattle, they add Sewald to the “8th inning” role and more or less use Ryne Stanek or Austin Voth in the Thornton role. And Pederson becomes a DH/LF bat against RHP, likely hitting in the Top 5 of the lineup for the rest of the year. Luke Raley very well may have leapfrogged Canzone in the teams’ overall plans and provides a similar bat with more athleticism and defense.

Pederson is a poor defender. He’s really a DH only. But Seattle has those at-bats to give. But before we write off the deal entirely, let’s see what the rest of the deadline looks like.

Trade #2: Luis Suisbel and Luis Urias to Detroit for Mark Canha and Cash ($1.5 million)

It’s not sexy, but we all know Canha will be a Mariner before he retires. The long-time Oakland A might be the most boring player in baseball, but he does some things well. Despite being 35 years old, he’s still a solid defender in the outfield and first base. He traditionally ranks very well in swing decision metrics (whiff %, chase %, BB%). He’s posted a 100 wRC+ or higher 6 straight seasons and has never posted a K% above 22.2% in that time. In layman’s terms, he’s a professional hitter.

Canha may be more of a weakside platoon player now, but throughout his entire career, he’s been perfectly good against LHP and RHP. In 2024, he’s posted a 140 wRC+ against LHP and a still playable 89 wRC+ against RHP. Canha is still owed about $5 million for the remainder of the year, which is why Urias is included in the deal. Urias will be due roughly $2 million for the rest of the year and Detroit should be willing to eat some of the difference in these contracts to facilitate a deal that nets them an interesting prospect, like Suisbel.

Trade #3: Harry Ford, Lazaro Montes, Tai Peete, Michael Arroyo to Chicago for Luis Robert Jr. and Michael Kopech

And now we’ve arrived at the big boy. The biggest shot the Mariners may ever take in their attempts to win a World Series. And if you’re wondering if this is an overpay, I’m not even sure this is enough to get the job done. But for our discussions, this is where I land. Unfortunately, it seems more likely than not that Julio Rodriguez will not be coming out of his funk. This means the offense doesn’t need a Robin to Julio’s Batman. The offense needs a Batman to which hopefully Julio can be the Robin. And when you look around at the landscape, there just aren’t going to be many A-list hitters to choose from.

Robert is scary. He’s often injured. He strikes out. And he doesn’t walk. A big part of his value comes from his great defense in center field. For you, he’s playing a corner. This is a big swing. Ford could see the big leagues by 2025 as an average defensive catcher with a 120 wRC+ upside. Montes could be an All-Star DH for a decade. Peete is a freak of an athlete with a good chance to play a premium position and Arroyo might be the most underrated bat in all of the minor leagues. Risk is everywhere.

But the bigger risk might be to sit on your hands. Hope that your band of misfits find enough offense to sneak into the playoffs and pray to the baseball gods that your pitching staff can carry you from 180+ games a year. Going from bad to good is easy. You say goodbye to bandaids and dream of young talents to lead you to the promised land. But going from good to great requires sacrificing the dreams of the last 3 years and taking a calculated risk. There’s a point where the risk becomes too great, but it doesn’t mean that no risk should be taken.

Robert has the potential to change the entire complexion of the season. Heck, he has the potential to change the outlook of the next half-decade. He’s 26 years old. He already has a season with 38 homers and 20 stolen bases. He’s an elite glove and a good athlete. And he’s cost-controlled through the 2027 season. Look at how much he can change your outlook on a lineup:

VS RHP

1. Raley LF

2. JP SS

3. Robert RF

4. Pederson DH

5. Julio CF

6. Cal C

7. France 1B

8. Polanco 2B

9. Rojas 3B

Bench

• Garver 

• Haniger

• Canha

• Moore

Vs LHP

1. JP SS

2. Canha DH

3. Robert RF

4. Julio CF

5. Raley LF

6. Cal C

7. France 1B 

8. Polanco 2B

9. Moore 3B

Bench

• Haniger

• Pederson

• Rojas

• Garver

That’s a lineup that can do damage. And with a bullpen that now features Gregory Santos, Michael Kopech, and Paul Sewald to join Andres Munoz, Seattle can win a lot of games and maybe, just maybe, find themselves in a World Series for the first time in their history. As Billy Beane once said, “It’s time to make a Fucking A trade”. You can go win 90 games and have a nice little season. Or you can go for it and win something that matters. If you’re not trying to win the last game of the season, what is even the point of the half-decade of discipline?