Looking Outside of the Box to Improve the Seattle Mariners

We've talked a lot about the Mariners potential interest in bats from Tampa, St. Louis, and Minnesota. But there are other teams and players who could help Seattle win in 2024.

Randy Arozarena. Lars Nootbaar. Max Kepler. Mitch Garver. Jorge Soler. These are all players Mariners fans have been discussing for six weeks and yet, none of them are on a different team now than they were in 2023. And until that happens, we’ll continue to have the same conversations over and over again until we finally stop caring. But the inconvenient truth is that the overwhelming odds are that the Seattle Mariners aren’t going to land any of these players. Does that mean they should quit? Of course not. But it does mean the front office may need to widen their player pool to find answers.

Now, rest assured, they have. Jerry Dipoto and Justin Hollander aren’t just sitting around hoping a name we’ve all talked about falls into their lap. They’re considering anyone and everyone who might help this ball club. But while most of us are focused on two or three clubs and free agents, Seattle’s front office is turning over every stone imaginable to find the help they need. So, in that spirit, let’s take the time to discuss some players and ideas that simply are not being discussed enough by the masses.

San Francisco Giants: A Good Fit?

The Giants are expected to have a loud off-season and were reportedly one of the teams at the end of the Ohtani sweepstakes. They missed on the unicorn, but have snagged Jung Ho Lee and are reportedly a finalist for Yoshitoshi Yamamoto. They’ve also been linked to Matt Chapman and Blake Snell. The Giants are going to spend money, come hell or high water. But depending on who they bring in, they could create a logjam of sorts that needs to be cleared.

For example, with Lee in the fold, the Giants have a plethora of outfield options they’ll need to sort. Bats like Mike Yasztremski, Austin Slater, Lamonte Wade Jr., Michael Conforto, and Mitch Haniger may have a difficult time coexisting on the same roster, particularly since only one of them is an option in center field.

If the Giants acquire Chapman, it may force the club to look to move JD Davis, Casey Schmitt, Thairo Estrada, or Wilmer Flores. And if they can acquire Blake Snell, Alex Cobb or Keaton Winn could become expendable. The Giants are likely to have excess bats regardless of who else they bring in.

While Conforto and Haniger have obvious ties to the region, they’re both making enough money to give Seattle pause and in the case of Haniger, the injury history is well-known and established. Perhaps the Mariners could get cash from San Francisco, or include Ty France in a deal to ease some of their “financial difficulties”, but it does seem like Yaz or Wade are better options.

Yaz is particularly interesting. He’s on the older side for an Arb4 player and he’ll make $7.9 million in 2023. He can play center but is better suited for a corner spot. He’s been a solid hitter his entire career, sporting a career 114 wRC+, and before this year, he’s been quite durable. If you’re looking for a solid, high-floor, “professional” hitter who can play in multiple spots, Yaz is probably the guy to target.

San Francisco needs to rebuild their farm system a bit, and players like Tyler Locklear, Jonatan Clase, and Lazaro Montez will likely appeal to them as high-upside bats. Seattle might be able to get more from San Francisco if they’re willing to part with a Gabriel Gonzalez type, perhaps even two of the bats listed above as well as relief pitcher Ryan Walker. San Francisco is a trade partner that Mariners fans aren’t talking about enough, as a team with multiple solid bats who may prefer prospect-led packages instead of MLB-ready players.

Why Not Just Pitch Your F@$#%@G Brains Out?

It is always going to be difficult to get hitters to come to Seattle in free agency. It’s a difficult offensive environment, so to get talent to bite, you likely will need to overpay, either in AAV or years… or perhaps both. But pitching isn’t as difficult to attract and Seattle has gotten two legitimate starters to take market value or below to pitch in Seattle (Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray).

So if pitchers are the easier group to sell to, and it also happens to be the strength of the market… why not lean into it? Why not attempt to be an average offense with ELITE pitching? You’re already well on your way with Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Andres Munoz, and Matt Brash. Not to mention the upside arms like Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. Why not patch your holes in the lineup with high-floor veterans while building up what I’ve affectionately called the “fuck you pitching staff”?

But how do they get there? The most obvious way to go would be to simply sign Blake Snell. He wants to be here. You may be able to get a team-friendly deal both in terms of dollars and structure. You could also really use a lefty in this rotation, but that isn’t something you can force. But what if Dipoto simply can’t sign Snell and make the necessary upgrade to the offense thanks to the Stanton Clause? Where could they turn?

How about going out and using your solid farm system filled with up-the-middle talents to get a true middle-of-the-rotation arm? The Brewers are going to trade Corbin Burnes. That could be a fit and would likely be relatively cheap. But they could also be willing to deal Freddy Peralta. He’s likely going to cost you at least one of Harry Ford, Colt Emerson, or Cole Young, as well as Gabby Gonzalez and perhaps Tyler Locklear. But a rotation of Castillo, Kirby, Peralta, Gilbert, and Miller would be tough to beat.

Or perhaps the Marlins, who have been heavily rumored to be shopping from their pitching surplus, could move Jesus Luzardo. The Marlins are desperately looking for a shortstop, a luxury the Mariners can’t afford. But what about Trevor Rogers? Rogers only made 4 starts in 2023 but he was electric in 2021, posting a 4.3 fWAR season and a 2.64 ERA. He profiles similarly to Robbie Ray as a fastball-slider lefty who gets plenty of strikeouts when he’s on. Rogers also has a plus changeup, but he took a step back in 2022 and wasn’t able to get healthy in 2024, so there is a risk.

However, he’s got 3 years of club control left, is projected to make less than $4 million, and has been pushed down the Marlins depth chart, making him a cheaper option than Peralta. Rogers might be had for a couple of fringe top-10 prospect types and carries serious upside both in the rotation and out of the bullpen.

A few other names who could complete your “fuck you” rotation include Shane Bieber, Dylan Cease, Mitch Keller, and Kyle Bradish.

A Run Saved Is a Run Scored…

If the Mariners can’t score more runs, they’ll need to prevent more of them. And while pitching is the primary weapon to do so, you can also prevent runs with defense. Preventing a run is as valuable as scoring one, yet the market will not act like it. Seattle may agree. The team has already drastically improved their defense at catcher and second base from where they started the 2023 season. Luis Urias may not be able to repeat Eugenio Suarez’s incredible defensive season, but he’s going to be better than Suarez was every year before 2023.

The biggest concerns for the Mariners defense currently lie in the corner outfield. While anybody would be an upgrade defensively from Teoscar Hernandez, Jarred Kelenic was a good corner glove, and Dominic Canzone… well he isn’t. Cade Marlowe graded out quite well in his limited time in left field, but the Mariners could go for broke and attempt to land the likes of Kevin Kiermaier and Michael A. Taylor, both plus defensive centerfielders who would instead flank gold glove snub Julio Rodriguez in the outfield.

In the infield, Seattle could add a plus defensive second baseman to pair with the solid J.P. Crawford. Tommy Edman, Ha-Seong Kim, and Jake Cronenworth would represent a significant upgrade to Josh Rojas. While Crawford is a better defender than the metric would have you believe, he certainly isn’t a plus glove. But Willy Adames is. Would JP slide to second to maximize the infield’s defensive value? Perhaps.

Ty France isn’t awful at first, but he isn’t good. If you’re going to be mediocre anywhere on defense, you want it to be first base. But what if Seattle were to trade France to the Twins for Max Kepler, who has consistently graded out as a good to great right fielder? Could landing Brandon Drury or Carlos Santana save a handful of runs without losing them at the plate? Possibly.

There is a tipping point where the bat is so worthless that no amount of defensive value can make up for it, so you do need to be careful. A 50-grade bat who is a 60-glove is way more valuable than a 35-grade bat who is a 70-glove. As the old saying goes, “You can’t win a game 0 to -1”. But limiting runs is a skill and if you can’t significantly improve your offense, the only way to win more games is to give up fewer runs.

Epilogue

I originally sat down to write a standard “3 trades Seattle could make that aren’t with the Twins, Rays, etc…” type of piece, but instead ended up with this. Specific trade ideas are fun, but often pointless, as we can only guess who might be available, whom might the Mariners be interested in, and at what cost. So instead of nailing now specifics, I decided to opt for the more open-ended article you read.

Why? To illustrate the point: there are a lot of ways to win baseball games. There are a lot of ways to improve this roster. And if we’re willing to forget about specific names and instead talk about general ideas, the number of players we’d consider would expand. You didn’t read a ton of stats in this piece. That was intentional. I wanted to discuss ideas more than players, in the hopes that discussing multiple options might spur new ideas amongst the handful of fans who would read the piece.

Seattle shouldn’t be in a place where they need to comb through the lost and found section of free agency or the trade market. It should’ve been a straightforward off-season. And maybe it will still end up being a relatively “by the book” winter. But in the event it’s not, I hope we’re at least open-minded to the idea that maybe, just maybe, the off-season doesn’t need to be Jorge Soler, Randy Arozarena, or bust. Hope you enjoyed it.